I have toyed with the idea of writing this blog for a while, but never seemed to have enough time or could really be bothered with all the hassle bearing in mind some may not read it anyway. But alas, here it is.
At a time when QPR are battling to stay in the Premier League, their neighbours down the road are fighting to get in it after a whirlwind first season in the Championship. Brentford, whom have often been a joke to many in the past, are making people sit up and take notice. I’ve been convinced for a while that if Rangers were to adopt a loose version of ‘Moneyball’ they would see a huge turnaround in fortunes. I am probably wrong but if done well, it can be very beneficial to a club.
Mathew Benham, the Brentford FC chairman and supporter is a huge fan of Moneyball. The phrase was originally coined by Oakland Athletic’s Billy Beane in Major League Baseball. Beane and Oakland had a tiny budget and with this realised that by copying the methods of the bigger and better teams he and the side would never really progress as he wanted. Instead he relied heavily on a scouting network that focused on statistics and undervalued players that could be acquired very cheaply whilst selling players in their squad that they felt to be overvalued (fairly common sense I’m sure you’ll agree).
If you haven’t read Soccernomics by Kuper and Szymanski, then I’ve written out their ‘rules’ for a successful Moneyball approach. I think it makes for fascinating reading and if you haven’t read the book then I would highly recommend it. I’ve added the page numbers for those that do. Anyway, the rules are here:
1. Net wage spend is more important than net transfer spend (pp. 14-21)
2. Don’t needlessly splash out on new players or sell old ones when you take over a club – the New Manager Syndrome (pp. 21-22)
3. Don’t recruit players who impressed at international tournaments: they’re likely to be overvalued and past performance is no indication of future performance, especially when they’re playing with a different team (pp. 22-24) – there are different incentives and a different tactical set-up at tournaments, and it’s a super small sample size.
4. Some nationalities are overrated, like Holland, Brazil, and England (pp. 24-25)
5. Sell your players at the right time: when they’re around 30 years old, goalkeepers aside (p. 29)
6. Use the wisdom of crowds: ask all your scouts and a Director of Football if you have one (pp. 43-44)
7. Buy players in their early twenties, which avoids the problems with not developing properly, and means previous statistics have greater value (pp. 45-47)
8. Centre-forwards cost more than they should (p. 47)
9. Sell any player if a club offers more than they are worth and try to replace them before they are sold (pp. 48-49)
10. Don’t buy players if you don’t need to: develop a youth network and try to develop your own players (pp. 49-51)
Of course, it’s fairly hard pinpoint each and everyone one of them to Brentford, but they do make a frightening amount of sense in general.
One of Brentford’s signings last year was pacey non-league forward Andre Gray. The 23-year-old had scored 30 goals whilst still being something of a creative force for his team-mates with 8 assists in 45 games for Luton Town, before Brentford pounced to sign him for £550k (Transfermarkt). I covered Brentford in preseason and was impressed with Gray, he had all the attributes even if he was a little raw. I know he had a bit of a culture shock with the transition into full-time football, even admitting to me that he would often go home to bed after preseason training as he was so exhausted. At the age of 23, he has hit 15 goals in the league and assisted his team mates eight times. He’s quick, strong, clinical and like many of the Brentford team unselfish. I’m sure he’s worth far more than the half a million they paid for him now.
Another look at The Bees’ recruitment process shows an emphasis on young players. Last summer Warburton signed one 18-year-old, five 20-year-olds, three 21-year-olds, four players between the ages of 22 and 24, and one 27 and 28-year-old each. There was an anomaly however, Tommy Smith (35) signed on a short term deal. Whilst perhaps more experience would have held them in greater stead, the vast majority of the signings have hit the Moneyball points straight on the head. (point 7)
Depending on positon, injury history and a few other factors peak age range can differentiate but the general consensus is that it falls between 24 and 30. The majority of Brentford’s first team this year were made up of players between the ages of 20 and 24. Whilst three of the four players (Jonathan Douglas, Alan McCormack, Tommy Smith and Kevin O’Connor) that are older than the peak age range have played less than 40% of games this year. The one anomaly to this, Jonathan Douglas has been a mainstay in the side with an array of competitive and energetic performances.
So not only are they attracting young players, they are giving them game time and allow them to progress. They’re also likely to be on a vast amount of money less than their older counterparts and they can continue to develop together. When the time is right, they could be sold on for profit or kept with them all hitting their peak ages together.
When a club is run like this, it also becomes less irrelevant in comparison to other clubs of whom the manager or head coach is. Saying that however, I do really like Mark Warburton though.
He’s got a philosophy that he sticks too and always wants to play the right way. Brentford are playing teams off the park at GP this year, but even when things aren’t going right he still expects the ball to be played on the floor and berates his side if they start launching it long.
He’s very analytical, very honest and has an in-depth knowledge of European youngsters having started the NextGen series (Player of the Season Alex Pritchard first came to his attention when he played in this a few years back).
He likes to play 4-2-3-1 with two industrious midfielders protecting a back four made up with two athletic, attacking minded wing-backs and two commanding centre halves.
The lone striker doesn’t need to be good in the air and he isn’t the best, he pulls the two centre halves all over the place creating space for the three attacking midfielders – who whilst being technically gifted, have a very high work rate. The often play a counter attacking game and the keeper will be asked to drop the ball quick into the attacking third for the front four to cause havoc.
The future is very bright for Brentford, Benham and Warburton. I’m sure everyone involved is destined for the Premier League in the not too distant future even though they won’t be all at Brentford.
How it would be implemented at QPR now, I’m not sure. However, with a huge summer coming for Rangers a philosophy needs to be laid down and I’m sure there are a few Moneyball advocates that would be pushing it in the direction of W12.
jordanjamesfoster 